Looking Back at Looking Forward: My 2006 Machinima Predictions

Yow, I tell ya, this blogging thing gets past you. You make one posting and then - BANG! - it's nearly a month later. Amazing.

So here we are, begin of January 2007. A Happy New Year everyone! I thought it would be fun to kick off the year with a review of my Machinima predicts from last year and see how well we did (and stealing the post format from Cory Ondrejka and his predictions around MMOs/VWs on TerraNova). Let's get straight to it then.

My 2006 Machinima Predictions in review!

1. Buzz around Machinima will continue into 2006, and then slow as we enter 2nd quarter of the year.
   
   This is a hard one to call. As we did see a spike in Machinima interest continue into early 2006 with the French Democracy buzz, it did seem to slowly ramp down after March. It picked up again later in the year with hits like Deviation, Male Restroom Etiquette, The 1k Project and Bloodspell. However, we'll drop this one in the Correct column, though it is admittedly marginal.
   Correct - Score: 1/1.
   
   
2. A Machinima will be created that will stir up legal matters/IP issues around Machinima in general (akin to the RIAA item of 2005, only for real). Though this could counter prediction #1.
   
   Jon Griggs' Deviation was looking like it would cause quite the stir around IP issues, but due to some last minute shuffling and talks, the larger controversy was averted and the film saw release on Atom Films' site. While this prediction could technically fall either way, we'll drop it into the Incorrect column, as it didn't initiate the groundshaking that I was meaning - plus the film got its release and everyone went home happy (for the most part).
   Incorrect - Score: 1/2
   
   
3. Next-gen Machinima software will be announced, possibly from an existing software developer. This could be either a new product entirely, or an existing package with Machinima-like features rolled out.
   
   Reallusion stepped up to bat here and knocked one out of the park with iClone 1.5, one of the first professionally developed Machinima applications. Additionally, Short Fuze's MovieStorm was announced and went into beta testing towards the end of 2006.
   Correct - Score: 2/3
   
   
4. Mods from The Movies community will continue the growth of using that game for Machinima development. Disclosure: This is somewhat already in play with the new MED and Max Import/Export tools on the horizon.
   
   Mods from The Movies community have surfaced, but these releases have only found a limited audience within a selected group. Suffice to say, that the continued growth of The Movies came mostly from people using the game as purchased (with its sorely-needed Stunts and Effects EP) rather than from large strides made with home-brewed tools.
   Incorrect - Score: 2/4
   
   
5. Lionhead will release an expansion pack for the Movies, clearly targeting their Machinima users. However, Lionhead will continue not to include the word "Machinima" in any of their press/marketing.
   
   Ok, two predicts here for the price of one. As per above, Lionhead released The Movies: Stunts and Effects Expansion Pack, which finally gave The Movies auteurs the absolutely-required free-floating camera (go LH!). In part II of this prediction, Activision, not surprisingly, failed to include "Machinima" in any of their releases related to The Movies.
   Correct - Score: 3/5
   
   
6. The 2006 Machinima Festival will be the largest yet.
   
   Ok, I have to admit - this was a lame one. We announced at the end of the 2005 festival that the fest would be a two-day affair in 2006 - which immediately made the event a larger one overall and thus, one could hardly call it a prognostication of any sort. Still, it was a great fest. (c:
   Disqualified - Score remains: 3/5
   
   
7. More mainstream acceptance/visibility for Machinima. The measure of this will be the inclusion of the term "Machinima" in a more casual context.
   
   Score another. This prediction came to fruition in a variety of online (Kotaku and Joystiq here) and offline publications - who began using "Machinima" more often, assuming the word resonated enough that its readership didn't need a constant handholding in terminology.
   Correct - Score: 4/6
   
   
8. Console developers will key into Machinima as another platform feature (Disclosure II: this is already happening somewhat with RvB episodes in XBox Live Marketplace).
   
   As previously nodded at, XBox's Peter Moore had already spoke of Machinima content on their Live service. However, this prediction gained more momentum, with a just-under-the-wire mention by Sony's Phil Harrison's of in-game recording on the PS3 in November's Playstation Magazine.
   Correct - Score: 5/7
   
   
9. More Machinima artists will be approached about commissioned works.
   
   While "commissioned works" wasn't entirely broad enough, 2006 saw a number of Machinima artists/groups approached for commercial projects. In the past year alone, Rooster Teeth, The ILL Clan, Ken Thain, Chris Burke, Ezra Ferguson, Friedrich Kirschner, Terran Gregory, Tristan Pope, Joseph Falcione, Nathan Moller, Jonathan Perry, Jason Choi, Pierce Portacarrero, Sasha Rudie, Ricard Gras, Brian Mayberry, Tawmis Logue and Adam Freese (just to name a few, the list continues in fact...) have all been either contracted or hired to produce Machinima. Now that warms the heart for sure - and each of them deserve all the praise and rewards they receive.
   Correct - Score: 6/8
   
   
10. First Machinima series produced for broadcast television will be announced. While some works already meet some of the criteria of this prediction (Strangerhood Studios, Fresh Baked Videogames, Heavy.com etc.), this prediction is about a full-up Machinima series ordered (and marketed) for a broadcast television audience.
    
    Wrong-o, Marino. While there were some rumblings within confidential circles, none came to light. The WoW episode of South Park was a step in the right direction, but far from a commissioned series for broadcast.
    Incorrect - Score: 6/9
    

Well, there ya have it. Some predicts were a tad stretched, but overall not bad - a 6/9 score (6/10 if you want to factor in the disqualified prediction). Within the next week, I'll post my Machinima predictions for 2007 - and see how loopy (or lame) we can get with those.